Jeff Locke had a brilliant first half, but I fear it was more luck than skill. He did not even have a 2:1 ratio for K's to BB's as he had a 4.25xfip which was over 2 runs higher than his 2.15 ERA. There is not a lot of value to be had on Locke who was lucky with a .228 BABIP which led to a 83.3% left on base percent. He missed his last start due to a stiff back and has not pitched since July 8th. I predict a little rust in this situation especially for a young pitcher.
Meanwhile Homer Bailey pitches on 5 or more days of rest which is always key for a power pitcher in my opinion. He's backed it up posting a 2.57 ERA on 5 or more days of rest this season with half of his starts going at least 8 innings. Bailey is 10-3 in his last 13 vs. the Pirates and has 3 complete games out of his last 10 starts including a no hitter last year. Bailey has a 2.85 ERA at home this year and should have the advantage here as the Pirates have already started their 2nd half decline by losing the first two games of this series. Locke is 4-10 in his last 14 road starts while the Reds are 48-22 in their last 70 home favorites -110 to -150.
The Phillies have dominated the Mets recently who are a dreadful 11-24 in their last 35 home games 10-22 in their last 32 vs. LH starters and 10-25 in their last 35 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Cliff Lee posts a 2.34 ERA in his last 9 starts vs. the Mets who are scoring less than 3 runs per game vs. LHP at home this year. Matt Harvey will be on the mound for the Metropolitan's and that's why we are faced with nice value here with Lee who has a better ERA on the road than Harvey does at home. I also expect Harvey to have a bit of a hang over here in the 2nd half. The Mets have already used their bullpen like crazy due to poor starting pitching so when Harvey is limited to 7 innings or less the Mets will be at a distinct advantage.
